England vs India: 1st Test Betting Tips & Predictions

England vs India First Test Betting Tips & Predictions 2021
James Pacheco profile image

Betting Expert, James Pacheco

Last updated on 4th August 2021

Published: 02/08/2021

Categories: Cricket, Predictions

ENGLAND WON THE TOSS AND CHOSE TO BAT FIRST

This is one of the biggest games in international cricket and for online cricket betting and personally, I just can’t wait.  Heavyweights England and India clash at Trent Bridge in Nottingham for the First Test on Wednesday, August 4, start time 3.30 pm IST. 

Not only am I going to give you all the team news, weather forecast, past results and analysis of the key players but I’m also going to tell you what the best England v India betting tips are ahead of this match.

So just keep on reading and you’ll have everything you need ahead of this mouth-watering contest.

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England vs India Betting Odds

Want some free cricket betting tips? Course you do.  Well, here they are. I think it will be a draw with so much rain around and I don’t see any reason why India are such outsiders to take a first innings lead.

I’m about to explain the reasoning behind both those bets.

Bet Odds Site
Match-winner: The draw 2.5 Betway
Toss winner: England 1.9 Betway
India First Innings Lead 2.37 Betway
HOT BET! Ajinkya Rahane to be India first innings top batsman 5.5 Betway

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English Flag for the English team's news in our England vs India Test Series Betting Tips & Predictions

England Team News

There’s no Ben Stokes. That’s the stand-out headline from the squad announcement after the genius all-rounder opted to take an indefinite break from cricket, citing pressure and mental health issues.

England will surely respect his decision but they know what a hole he leaves in the side. Pound for pound he’s arguably their best batsman  with only Joe Root able to compete with his numbers, while he’s by far the side’s best fielder.

Oh, and did we mention he’s also an extremely important fifth bowler? So you can see why he’s irreplaceable, but they’ll have to make alternative plans now.

They also have a problem with Ollie Pope, who’s currently suffering from a quadriceps tear, which he put down to playing five T20 Blast games in eight days.

Pope is England’s next Test match superstar batsman and they won’t want to be without him here but they also know this is a long Series and they may have to just take their medicine and leave him out of the First Test and hope he recovers for the next.

We’ve been saying it for a while but this may just be the last Series we ever see James Anderson and Stuart Broad bowling in tandem on English soil.

England Likely XI

Burns, Sibley, Crawley, Root, Bairstow, Buttler, Lawrence, Overton, Robinson, Broad, Anderson.

England Actual XI

Bairstow, Root, Lawrence, Broad, Crawley, Robinson, Sibley, Buttler, Curran, Anderson, Burns.

Indian flag for the Indian team's news in our England vs India Test Series Betting Tips & Predictions

India Team News

India aren’t without their problems, either. They’ve lost Shubman Gill to injury so the opener’s spot will certainly go to Mayank Agarwal, who will open alongside Rohit Sharma.

I honestly can’t believe there’s even a debate about whether Chet Pujara will play here.

Yes, he hasn’t been in the best of touch and it’s now 18 Tests without a century for him but he’s class act with sound technique, a bucketload of patience and experience of playing in English conditions, so India would really be shooting themselves in the foot if they didn’t pick him.

They also have a slight injury concern with vice-captain Ajinkkya Rahane but my gut feeling is he’ll be available to play.

As will Rishabh Pant, who suffered from Covid but will be ok to feature. More than anyone else in the side, he’s the batsman who can most easily turn a game on its head so  they’ll be desperate for him to play.

It will be interesting to see whether India play one spinner, or two.

The management and skipper Virat Kohli love Ravi Jadeja almost as much as we do here at Bet India, so he’s likely to play, but maybe Ravi Ashwin won’t.

India’s Likely XI

Rohit Sharma, Agarwal, Pujara, Kohli, Rahane, KL Rahul, Pant, Jadeja, Shami, Ishant Sharma, Bumrah.

India’s Actual XI

Siraj, Rahul, Sharma, Jadeja, Pujara, Pant, Bumrah, Kohli, Thakur, Shami, Rahane.

Venue & conditions

Between 2008 and 2013, England won five in a row at Trent Bridge, beating New Zealand, Pakistan, India, the West Indies and Australia respectively.

But they haven’t had it all their own way since. There was a draw against India in 2014 and a win for India in 2018, after Kohli got 97 in the first innings and 103 in the second.

England also lost to South Africa here in Nottingham in 2017. But Joe Root’s men did win in 2015 against Australia.  But that doesn’t hide the fact this has not been a happy hunting ground for England in recent years.

The weather forecast isn’t great.  We may get a full day’s play on Wednesday but that might be as good as it gets with rain forecast for Days 2 through to 4.  That of course, brings the draw into play.

England vs India Head-to-Head

Time to look at the England v India head to head. These two have played each other 126 times since their first encounter way back in 1932.

England are 48-29 ahead on wins but interestingly, it’s actually the draw that has popped up the most times with 49 incidents of it.

The picture looks bleaker for the tourists  when just looking at matches played in England. It’s proof of just how hard India have found English conditions, and in particular the swinging ball, over the decades.

In 62 attempts in England, India have won just seven Tests, with 21 draws and 34 wins for England. Yeah, that’s over half of the Test matches played in England that the hosts have won.

England have also won seven of the last eight that were played on their own patch against India.

However, India won the 2021 February/March Series 3-1 in the Sub-Continent, proof that home advantage really is key when these two play each other.

England vs India First Test Head to Head Statistics 2021

England vs India Toss Prediction

England won the toss as predicted

Right, time to look at some England v India toss winner statistics over the years. If ever you wanted to look at an exercise in how probability doesn’t lie, just look at the stats between the two when it comes to the flip.

It’s almost exactly 50/50, despite the coin being tossed 126 times. However, we have a very simple rule at Bet India.  We always oppose the notoriously unlucky Virat Kohli, so it’s England we’re going with.

England vs India First Test Toss Winners Prediction 2021

TEAMS TOSS WIN %
England 64 50.79%
India 62 49.21%

England vs India Winner Prediction

Recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 2.5 with Betway

Time for our match prediction. You will have noticed in the head-to-head section that the result that has happened the most between these two over the years is the draw.

However, there haven’t been too many draws at Trent Bridge recently, with only three in the last 17.

But then again, not many of those matches had as bad a weather forecast as this one. As we said already, there could well be plenty of overs lost to rain on each of the last four days and that could well deny us a result here.

The other point is that very often in the First Test of a Series, neither side wants to lose. Sounds obvious, I know, but what I mean is that either side will probably settle for a draw rather than forcing the issue.

Even more so given that both Root and Kohli are ‘safety-first’ captains. So if everything points to time taken out of the game and no real desire to take unnecessary risks, it’s the draw that stands out.

It’s 2.5 with Betway in terms of the England v India betting odds on the draw and that looks the right call. Here’s our in-house Betway review for you to read so you see why we think it’s a top site for Indian customers.

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India First Innings Lead

Recommended Bet: Back India to Lead after the 1st Innings @ 2.37 with Betway

I don’t see any particular reason why India are such outsiders to take a 1st innings lead.

I make this match much closer than the odds suggest to begin with and let’s remember that England are definitely without the amazing Ben Stokes and probably without Ollie Pope, as well.

That could cost them about 100 runs between them and if India get to bowl first in damp, overcast conditions, they could easily restrict England to less than 250 and make a few more than that when it’s their turn to bat.

It’s also very possible that Virat Kohli, with excellent form on this ground given he scored 97 and a century last time here, does it all by himself.

Either way, at 2.37, it’s too good a price to turn down that India better England’s first-innings score.

Today’s England vs India Hot Bet

Recommended Bet: Back Ajinkya Rahane to be India first innings top batsman @ 5.5 with Betway

If you’ve been reading Bet India for a while, you may guess where we’re going with our India top batsman bet.

We’re big Ajinkya Rahane fans over here and never forgot one of the coolest stats going in cricket: he’s just about the only batsman who has a superior average away from home than at home.

In India he averages 36.47 but in the Caribbean he averages 102, in South Africa 53 and in Bangladesh 98.

It is however true that in England it drops to 29, the only place where it’s not higher than at home. But he’s still got four fifties and a century in English conditions, plenty of experience of playing there and bats at a decent spot at number five.

He’s our man here, especially as a 6.5 fifth-favourite.

England vs India fun statistics

Shall we look at some cool England v India stats? Let’s do it.

  • If India field the XI I think they will, nine of the players in action will be the same ones from the last match between these two played here in 2018. Only Shikhar Dhawan and Hardik Pandya won’t play here, having played three years ago.
  • By contrast, if England play the XI I think they will, only Root, Buttler, Bairstow, Anderson and Broad played in that match here in Nottingham back in 2018.
  • Joe Root and Virat Kohli are considered two of the four best Test batsmen in the world, with Steve Smith and Kane Williamson completing the list. Root averages 48.68 with 20 Test centuries in 105 matches; Kohli averages 52.04 with 27 centuries in 97 Tests.
  • Rohit Sharma has only played 39 Tests, compared to 227 ODIs and 111 T20Is.
  • Ravi Jadeja’s figures show what a true all-rounder he is: 221 wickets in 52 Tests, 15 fifties and 38 catches.
  • James Anderson is already England’s most capped Test player with 162 appearances and will add to that number here. Broad is third on 148 and eyeing up Alastair Cook’s  161 games for England.
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