Recommended Bet: Back South Africa at 2.32 with Parimatch.
Last time out, SA were just 2.14. Now they’re 2.32 after that comprehensive defeat on Tuesday.
But maybe they shouldn’t be. They are after all still 2-1 up and may well be boosted by the returns of Quinton de Kock (injury), Aiden Markram (Covid), or both.
SA’s big sin in the last match was to let that opening partnership get off to a flier and they’ll be thinking that if they can get one or both of those openers out, they could expose a middle-order where Rishabh Pant looks badly out of form and the likes of Shreyas Iyer has been a bit hit-and-miss.
As we always say here at Bet India, the key is betting value, not betting on who you think will win.
India looked much better in that last match but we still think it should be a lot closer to a 50/50 affair.
India are at home so that’s their edge while on the flipside, they’ve rested key players for this Series, which is South Africa’s edge.
So with the Proteas considerable outsiders, they’re the ones to go with.
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We could say the same thing about South Africa. Very impressive in the first two games, they’re not all of a sudden a bad side just because they lost this one.
It was just a rather poor performance all round.
Most of the bowlers went for too many runs and it was their inability to break up the opening partnership that really cost them.
With the bat, they just couldn’t get any partnerships going and in the end Heinrich Klassen ended up top scoring with just 29, proof that no-one really got themselves in.
The absences of Quinton de Kock and Aiden Markram have weakened the side but perhaps they have an even bigger problem in the long-term.
Having made Temba Bavuma skipper, they obviously have to play him but his strike rate is too low and they’re not sure where to bat him. He’s been opening this Series but just wastes up too many balls.
He could end up being the team’s weakest link.
The usually reliable Anrich Nortje is having an under-par Series by his standards so he may be replaced by Lungi Ngidi or Marco Jansen here.
South Africa’s Likely XI
De Kock, Bavuma, Pretorius, van der Dussen, Miller, Klassen, Parnell, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi, Shamsi.
India vs South Africa Head-to-Head
These two have played each other 15 times in T20Is with India 10-8 up over the years after the hosts won on Tuesday.
There are two matches left in the Series. If SA win them both, they’ll be all square at 10-10.
Venue & conditions
There have been just three T20I matches played here at the Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium in Rajkot. India have won two of the three they’ve played there, beating Australia (2013) and Bangladesh (2019) and losing to New Zealand (2017).
In that match at Bangladesh, the most recent one, India chased 154 with four overs to spare.
But before that New Zealand posted 196 and back in 2013, India chased 202 with two balls to spare against Australia, thanks to a Yuvraj Singh masterclass with the bat.
So yes, there haven’t been too many matches to go by but this looks like a high-scoring ground.
180 will probably be the target score for the side batting first.