FA Cup Final Betting 2020: Arsenal vs Chelsea Betting Tips

The FA Cup - what they’re playing for

As the countdown to the FA Cup final, one of football’s great iconic days, gets underway, it’s time to look for some good football betting opportunities on it.

Gunners and Blues meet on Saturday at Wembley Stadium, kick-off time 10 pm IST (5.30 pm UK time).

Both teams have done pretty well already because both came in as underdogs to their respective semi-finals, with Arsenal beating Man City and Chelsea getting the better of Manchester United.

Next up is the background to the big day, the essential stats and of course, those all-important betting tips.

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Arsenal vs Chelsea betting tips and predictions

Bet Odds Why is this a good bet? Site
Back Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score 2.3 This one’s something of an obvious bet given he’s Arsenal’s most likely scorer and we already have them to win but don’t let that put you off. He’s in good form, is currently taking penalties and even if Arsenal don’t win and draw 1-1 or 2-2 say, he’s still got every chance of scoring. So go with the red-hot, in-form man. Betway
Back David Luiz to be shown a card 3.4 The Brazilian defender can be brilliant on his day but he can also be a proper liability on another day. It’s typical of a player who probably would rather be a midfielder than a defender! His disciplinary record in this game over the years is pretty poor, whether he’s been playing for Arsenal or Chelsea, so let’s hope he can commit one further misdemeanour and get us paid. Bet365

Last week, we took a purely stats-based approach to the FA Cup final and already flagged up the 2 bets below.

Since there’s no need to change our thinking, we will leave these here as well for you to consider!

Bet Odds Site
Back Arsenal to win in 90 minutes 3.4 Betway 
Back over 2.5 goals 1.88 10CRIC

Match facts

Let’s discuss some of the most important top-line stats and facts ahead of this big game.

  • Five of the last 10 games between these two in all competitions ended in draws.
  • Seven of the last 10 between these two went over 2.5 goals. We’d also already flagged up ‘overs’ as a fair bet on the stats-based piece last week.
  • Chelsea man Jorginho, an occasional goalscorer at best, scored in both matches against Arsenal this year in the league: in a 2-2 home draw and a 2-1 away win.
  • Five of the last six games between the two London outfits had at least one first-half goal.
  • Arsenal defender David Luiz has been sent off for Arsenal against Chelsea and before that, for Chelsea against Arsenal. He was sent off twice this season, including that red against Chelsea in January.

Chelsea’s recent form

Frank Lampard deserves 8.5/10 for the work he did in his first season in charge at Chelsea.

He secured a very credible fourth place in the league and will get to play in the Champions League next season if they make it through qualifying.

It’s hardly his fault that this year his young Chelsea guns came up against the extremely strong Bayern Munich and are almost certain to crash out when the Champions League resumes.

They’ll surely be a better side next year.

Not just because Lampard will have another season under his belt but also because there are some exciting signings on their way to Stamford Bridge, starting with prolific goalscorer Timo Werner.

But that’s all to think about in a few weeks.

This is a game and a competition he’d love to win and one of his major decisions is whether to play Olivier Giroud or Tammy Abraham upfront.

Willian, out of contract very soon indeed and yet to sign a new one, Christian Pulisic and Mason Mount are tasked with providing the creativity in attack.

Arsenal’s recent form

They’re far from being the finished article but they already look a lot better under Mikel Arteta than they did under Unai Emery.

It was a real mixed bag of results for them since the resumption.

One day they were beating the likes of Liverpool, the next day they were losing to relegation-threatened Aston Villa.

But they saved their best performance for the biggest game of all and deserve huge credit for beating a Man City side who were huge favourites in that semi.

Like with Lampard, winning this game would cap off a very good season for another young, charismatic and very able manager.

Big future: Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta

Arteta will be having sleepless nights about the future of Pierre-Emerick Aubmeyang.

His captain is out of contract very soon indeed and whether he signs a new one could have a huge bearing on Arsenal’s season next term.

So theoretically, this could be his last-ever game in an Arsenal shirt but Gunners fans will certainly be hoping that’s not the case.

Dani Ceballos, on loan from Real Madrid, could do with having a big game here.

It could also be his last game for Arsenal before a probable return to the Santiago Bernabeu in the summer.

Where to bet on Arsenal v Chelsea in the FA Cup Final

Two good bets ahead of this fascinating tie that will have fans of English football gripped all over the planet. Remember to read our reviews where we point out which are the bookmakers worth trusting and worthy of your custom.

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Arsenal v Chelsea FA Cup Final: Answers from the statistics

We have had a look at the statistics of both sides, as well as those of the FA Cup finals from previous years too.

Over the course of much research and consideration, the raw data we collected has been translated into the following questions and answers.

Have a look and see what the stats say about the 1010 FA Cup Final!

How have Arsenal and Chelsea done in the final?

Of course, the Arsenal side of 2005 was a very different one to the one of today and the same could be said of Chelsea.

But we have to assume that different teams maintain the same DNA, team spirit and characteristics over the years.

If that wasn’t the case, you might as well not bother with stats and head to head records at all!

Arsenal are the most successful side in FA Cup history, winning it  on 13 occasions, one more than Manchester United.

When you look at their record since 2004-5, you can see why.

They made four finals and won them all, beating Man Utd on penalties (2005), just about getting over the line with a 3-2 extra-time win over Hull (2014), thrashing Aston Villa 4-0 in 2015 and edging out Chelsea 2-1 in 2017.

Chelsea boss Frank Lampard ahead of the FA Cup final against Arsenal

Interestingly, in that period Chelsea have actually made one more final than Arsenal: they made five and the only one they lost was that one against Arsenal.

There was a narrow 1-0 win over Man Utd in 2007, a comeback win over Everton in 2009 (2-1), a narrow 1-0 victory over surprise package Portsmouth in 2010, a hard-fought 2-1 win over Liverpool in 2012 and a win by the single goal, 1-0 in 2018, against Man Utd once more.

So it’s 4/4 plays 4/5  proof that these two mean business once they get to the FA Cup final.

How often does the outsider win?

First things, first – there are big outsiders and then there are slight outsiders.

The only instance of a big outsider winning during our study period was in 2013, when Wigan stunned Manchester City to nick the final 1-0, producing one of English football’s biggest upsets of the last 20 years.

Wigan’s historic win over Man City

As for slight outsiders winning, this isn’t so common, either.

Arsenal won it as slight outsiders to Man Utd in 2005 and again in 2017 as slight underdogs to Chelsea.

For the record, Chelsea are the favourites for betting on the FA Cup final.

They’re just 2.15 to win in 90 minutes and 1.55 to lift the trophy (either after 90 minutes, after extra time or after penalties).

Arsenal are a big-looking 2.3 to lift the FA Cup and an even bigger 3.4 to win it 90 minutes. All of these odds are with Betway.

How often does the FA Cup final go into extra-time?

In the last 15 editions, extra-time was needed in four of them. Arsenal needed it in 2014 to beat Hull and Man Utd required an extra 30 minutes to get the better of Crystal Palace in 2016, eventually winning 2-1.

In 2005 and 2006, the extra 30 minutes still weren’t enough to split the teams. Arsenal got the better of Man Utd on penalties in 2005 and Liverpool were deadlier from the spot in 2006.

So that’s four of the last 15 editions that were draws (available at 3.4 with 10CRIC) on 90 minutes  and two of the last 15 that went to penalties. It’s 14.0 on Arsenal and 13.0 on Chelsea winning on penalties.

Does the FA Cup final tend to produce goals?

Using the most common and popular metric – whether the game goes over or under 2.5 goals – there’s a perfect split of 8/7 in favour of games going under (8) and over (7).

It couldn’t be ‘absolutely perfect’ because it’s an odd number of games we’re looking at.

Fine, but what about recent games between Arsenal and Chelsea? Do they tend to produce goals?

Across the last 15 games between these two in all competitions, nine of them went over 2.5 goals.

Looking at the numbers from FA Cup finals and those between these two would suggest that FA Cup final betting sites are finding it hard to split the two…

Over 2.5 goals is the choice at 1.88 with 10CRIC.

Who’s an FA Cup Final specialist goalscorer?

Interestingly, there isn’t a single player who will be turning out on August 1 who has scored a goal in an FA Cup final before.

Though both sides have been in Finals over the past few years and obviously had players scoring in them, the likes of Aaron Ramsey, Eden Hazard, Ramires, Diego Costa and Andy Carroll have all moved into pastures new.

There’s still just under two weeks till the big game so we’ll have to monitor how each side’s most likely goalscorers are doing.

Come back nearer the time for a complete football betting preview of the FA Cup final

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