Better still, we thought they’d play India in the final and with all due respect to Sri Lanka who thoroughly deserve to be here, India are (generally) tougher to beat.
So if you backed Pakistan at those odds, here’s the recommendation: if Pakistan get to chase, don’t do anything. Let the bet ride.
If Sri Lanka chase, back them at anything above 2.1. Whatever happens, you’ll end up in profit.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Betting Winner Prediction
Recommended Bet: Back Sri Lanka to win IF THEY CHASE @ 2.1 or more in Live Betting with Pure Win.
Of course, not everyone will have had the chance to read our pre-tournament preview and follow our tip on Pakistan.
So we have to assume some readers are going into the final without such a good position on Pakistan.
We’ve been in this situation several times throughout the tournament. The favourite at around 1.55, the outsider at around 2.4-2.5.
At this point it’s worth remembering the mind-boggling statistic that is that: 18 out of the last 19 sides chasing in Dubai have gone on to win the match.
Now, one of these days a team WILL lose again chasing.
It’s not like it hasn’t come close to happening in this very tournament.
Pakistan, for example, were somewhat fortunate that their Number 11(!) Nassem Shah came up with back-to-back sixes in the final over against Afghanistan to win them the match with just one wicket in hand.
Their win over India was also just with a ball to spare.
So the advice is actually the same as that if you had backed Pakistan pre-tournament.
You don’t want to be backing Pakistan at 1.55 pre-toss because that’s a poor price if they chase.
Nor do you want to back Pakistan at just 1.35-1.4 post-toss if they chase because it’s not a guarantee they’ll win, it’s just a big advantage. And that’s too short a price against a good side.
Nor do you want to back Sri Lanka at just 2.44 pre-toss because they may have to bat first and that’s not a great price if they do.
So there’s a 50/50 chance that Sri Lanka will chase and if they do, back them at 2.1 or better in Live Betting. If Pakistan chase, just don’t bet.
Our Pure Win review explains what we like about this betting site and why it’s one of the ones we recommend the most.
Pakistan spoiled what had been a perfect performance up to that point in the Asia Cup with a heavy defeat to Sri Lanka on Friday. Who are of course their opponents again for the final.
But the defeat must be put into context for several reasons.
Pakistan are never up for it in games that don’t really matter. Given they’d already qualified for the final, it wasn’t really an important game.
They had to chase at a ground where seventeen of the last 18 (now 18 out of the last 19) had been won by the chaser.
Sri Lanka have been excellent batting second for the last year or so.
They rested key players in Shadab Khan and Nassem Shah, who had been their heroes in their win over Afghanistan just a couple of days earlier.
Still, there’s no excuse for being all out for 121. Nor is there any excuse for batters 7 to 11 contributing just four runs between them.
But like we said, Pakistan are never good unless they’re important games and will be glad that they got their only poor performance of the tournament out of the way ahead of the final rather than in the final.
But one thing they need to rectify is their go-slow approach to their top order’s batting.
Mohammad Rizwan scored 14 off 14 and Babar Azam 30 off 29. Some games they or the middle order will be able to accelerate at the end. But in others, they won’t.
Either those two need to be more aggressive or they need to change the opening partnership.
They won’t be winning the World Cup with their openers boasting that sort of strike rate.
Pakistan’s Likely XI
Rizwan, Azam, Zahman, Ahmed, K Shah, A Ali, S Khan, Nawaz, Rauf, N Shah, Hasnain.
Sri Lanka’s Recent Form
They’ve been the big surprise of the tournament and for the right reasons.
No-one gave them much of a chance but after a heavy opening day defeat to Afghanistan they won four in a row, including of course fine wins over the two pre-tournament favourites: India and Pakistan.
The interesting thing about their excellent tournament is that it’s been very much a team effort rather than relying on individuals to shine.
Sure, all of Hasaranga de Silva, Nissanka, Asalanka, Mendis and Shanka have had their moments of individual brilliance. But the heroes have varied from game to game and that’s actually a good sign.
There is however, something worth mentioning. The only time they batted first, they lost.
The other four wins were all chasing so we’ll have to wait and see if they can win matches both here and at the World Cup (assuming they qualify) when batting first because they won’t always be lucky with the toss and be able to field first.