Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Betting Tips

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka betting tips Asia Cup Final 2022
James Pacheco profile image

Betting Expert, James Pacheco

Updated 10/09/2022

Categories: Cricket, Predictions

It’s the final of the 2022 Asia Cup and it’s a big match that we’ve all been looking forward to.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka go to battle one last time after Sri Lanka emerged victorious in Friday’s dress rehearsal.

If you’d like some top Pakistan vs Sri Lanka betting tips for this hugely important match, you’re about to get them.

Our online cricket betting analysis of this match also includes everything you need to know for the match in Dubai on Sunday, September 11, with a start time of 7.30 pm IST. 

Pure Win




Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Betting Odds

My cricket betting tips are below and we’re sticking with our tried and tested strategy that has served us so well this tournament.

Back the outsider if they chase, which in this case is Sri Lanka. I’ll explain why that’s the only strategy worth going with here.

I’ve also got a tip on the toss winner market and a third one on who can be Sri Lanka’s top batsman.

Bet Odds Website
Winner: Back Sri Lanka to win IF THEY CHASE. 2.1 or more in Live Betting
Toss: Sri Lanka. 1.9
HOT BET: Back Kusal Mendis to be Sri Lanka Top Batsman. 4.25

Asia Cup Winner market recap

Before we move onto the match winner market tip, a quick recap.

Pakistan were our 4.0 pre-tournament pick so those who backed them based on our recommendation are in an excellent position.

Better still, we thought they’d play India in the final and with all due respect to Sri Lanka who thoroughly deserve to be here, India are (generally) tougher to beat.

So if you backed Pakistan at those odds, here’s the recommendation: if Pakistan get to chase, don’t do anything. Let the bet ride.

If Sri Lanka chase, back them at anything above 2.1. Whatever happens, you’ll end up in profit.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Betting Winner Prediction

Recommended Bet: Back Sri Lanka to win IF THEY CHASE @ 2.1 or more in Live Betting with Pure Win.

Of course, not everyone will have had the chance to read our pre-tournament preview and follow our tip on Pakistan.

So we have to assume some readers are going into the final without such a good position on Pakistan.

We’ve been in this situation several times throughout the tournament. The favourite at around 1.55, the outsider at around 2.4-2.5.

At this point it’s worth remembering the mind-boggling statistic that is that: 18 out of the last 19 sides chasing in Dubai have gone on to win the match.

Now, one of these days a team WILL lose again chasing.

It’s not like it hasn’t come close to happening in this very tournament.

Pakistan, for example, were somewhat fortunate that their Number 11(!) Nassem Shah came up with back-to-back sixes in the final over against Afghanistan to win them the match with just one wicket in hand.

Their win over India was also just with a ball to spare.

So the advice is actually the same as that if you had backed Pakistan pre-tournament. 

You don’t want to be backing Pakistan at 1.55 pre-toss because that’s a poor price if they chase.

Nor do you want to back Pakistan at just 1.35-1.4 post-toss if they chase because it’s not a guarantee they’ll win, it’s just a big advantage. And that’s too short a price against a good side.

Nor do you want to back Sri Lanka at just 2.44 pre-toss because they may have to bat first and that’s not a great price if they do.

Still following?

So there’s a 50/50 chance that Sri Lanka will chase and if they do, back them at 2.1 or better in Live Betting. If Pakistan chase, just don’t bet.

Our Pure Win review explains what we like about this betting site and why it’s one of the ones we recommend the most.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Odds for Hot Bet

Recommended Bet: Back Kusal Mendis to be Sri Lanka Top Batsman @ 4.25 with Betway.

Kusal Mendis got out for a golden duck on Friday. It happens.

But before that, he’d scored 60, 36 and 57, proving he’s been in excellent form these last two weeks.

On all three occasions, he top scored for his side so those who showed faith in him will be in serious profit.

He ticks a lot of the boxes we always talk about in our top batsman guide: opens the batting, decent strike rate, in good form. Crucially, he’s also available at pretty good odds.

Despite being their highest scorer this tournament and winning three out of five times as top batsman this Asia Cup, he’s only the third favourite at 4.25.

That’s too good to turn down.

Want to know why Betway is such a highly recommended site and what bonuses you can get there as a new and existing customer? Find out in our Betway review.

Pakistan flag for our Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Betting Tips and winner predictions

Pakistan’s Recent Form

Pakistan spoiled what had been a perfect performance up to that point in the Asia Cup with a heavy defeat to Sri Lanka on Friday. Who are of course their opponents again for the final.

But the defeat must be put into context for several reasons.

  1. Pakistan are never up for it in games that don’t really matter. Given they’d already qualified for the final, it wasn’t really an important game.
  2. They had to chase at a ground where seventeen of the last 18 (now 18 out of the last 19) had been won by the chaser.
  3. Sri Lanka have been excellent batting second for the last year or so.
  4. They rested key players in Shadab Khan and Nassem Shah, who had been their heroes in their win over Afghanistan just a couple of days earlier.

Still, there’s no excuse for being all out for 121. Nor is there any excuse for batters 7 to 11 contributing just four runs between them.

But like we said, Pakistan are never good unless they’re important games and will be glad that they got their only poor performance of the tournament out of the way ahead of the final rather than in the final.

But one thing they need to rectify is their go-slow approach to their top order’s batting.

Mohammad Rizwan scored 14 off 14 and Babar Azam 30 off 29. Some games they or the middle order will be able to accelerate at the end. But in others, they won’t.

Either those two need to be more aggressive or they need to change the opening partnership.

They won’t be winning the World Cup with their openers boasting that sort of strike rate.

Pakistan’s Likely XI

Rizwan, Azam, Zahman, Ahmed, K Shah, A Ali, S Khan, Nawaz, Rauf, N Shah, Hasnain.

Sri Lankan flag for our Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Betting Tips and winner predictions

Sri Lanka’s Recent Form

They’ve been the big surprise of the tournament and for the right reasons.

No-one gave them much of a chance but after a heavy opening day defeat to Afghanistan they won four in a row, including of course fine wins over the two pre-tournament favourites: India and Pakistan.

The interesting thing about their excellent tournament is that it’s been very much a team effort rather than relying on individuals to shine.

Sure, all of Hasaranga de Silva, Nissanka, Asalanka, Mendis and Shanka have had their moments of individual brilliance. But the heroes have varied from game to game and that’s actually a good sign.

There is however, something worth mentioning. The only time they batted first, they lost.

The other four wins were all chasing so we’ll have to wait and see if they can win matches both here and at the World Cup (assuming they qualify) when batting first because they won’t always be lucky with the toss and be able to field first.

Sri Lanka’s Likely XI

Kusal Mendis (wk), Pathum Nissanka, Charith Asalanka, Danushka Gunathilaka, Dasun Shanaka, Bhanuka Rajapaksa, Chamika Karunaratne, Hasaranga de Silva, Maheesh Theekshana, Matheesha Pathirana, Dilshan Madushanka.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Head-to-Head

Pakistan are 13-9 ahead after The Lions’ win on Friday.

Curiously, before Friday they hadn’t played since 2019 when Sri Lanka beat them 3-0 in Pakistan although before that, it was Pakistan who had beat them 3-0 in the Series before that, also at home.

So things have been quite even between these two over the years.

Venue & Conditions

We’re in Dubai again.

If you were only judging the wicket based on what happened in Friday’s game between these two, you would have thought that it was a tough wicket and that we were in for another low-scoring game.

Think again. This match was very much an anomaly.

Not only were Pakistan a good 20-25 runs short of a par score but you would have expected Sri Lanka to have chased that without losing five wickets, even if they did so with plenty of balls to spare.

You’d think that about 155-169 would be par but that’s unlikely to be enough. It’s now 18 out of the last 19 here won by the chasing side, so bowling first is a huge, huge advantage.