India Tour of Australia Fourth Test Betting Tips & Predictions

India Tour of Australia Fourth Test Betting Tips & Predictions
James Pacheco profile image

Betting Expert, James Pacheco

Last updated on 23rd June 2021

Published: 14/01/2021

Categories: Cricket, Predictions

This is always one of the Test Series that cricket punters look forward to the most.

It’s a fixture with a rich history and in addition to telling you all you need to know about the players, stats and grounds, we’ll also give you the best cricket betting tips on all matches in the series.

Up next, the best betting tips and predictions for the fourth Test of the Australia v India series.

Winner market: No bet

Australia v India odds have Australia as strong favourites (1.42) to beat India when the fourth and final Test gets underway on Friday, January 15 at the Gabba – traditionally a fortress for Australia. Incredibly, haven’t lost there since 1988. For good measure, they’ve won each of their last seven games there.

Rather like ahead of the Second Test, where we swerved India at a big price and they ended up winning, we’re not going to bet.

Why we’re not going to bet on the match winner

We’re not betting on the draw at 4.35 because despite a little bit of rain forecast, this is a result wicket. In other words, there’s always enough in the wicket for both the seamers and the spinners for one of the teams to take 20 wickets.It would be highly surprising if it was a stalemate.

We’d love to bet India at 7.25. The problem is the mounting absences in the India camp.

Kohli: gone home for the birth of his child.

Shami and Yadav: gone home injured. Jadeja: broken thumb, ruled out.

Vihari: injured.

Even Ashwin and Bumrah are struggling with an injury. Losing one of those last two would be the final straw because there are only so many top-class Test match players that India have. The other problem with betting on India is that Australia have this excellent record at the Gabba.

Why we’re not betting on Australia

The issue we have with Australia is simply one: their odds.

We think they’ll probably win but we can’t bet them at that price. 1.7, fine. 1.65, fine. But 1.42 is incredibly short. If India win the toss, bat first and put 350 on the board, it will be extremely tough for the Aussies to win from that position.

The smart choice is to save our money for better bets. 

But if you must bet – we recommend that you place your money on Australia.

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Toss winner: Why is this a good bet?

It’s now 16 out of the last 23 in Tests between these two that have gone Australia’s way, including the last Test. This is clearly one area where they seem to have the edge.

They may not have won the game from a winning position but they did win the toss yet again, the Aussies. Given their luck with the coin, we have to go with them again.

Nathan Lyon man of the match: Why is this a good bet?

We said Australia should win (the problem was the odds) so it makes sense to go with an Australian for the man of the match award.

Good candidates include ace bowler Pat Cummins (11.0), and batting duo Steve Smith (5.5) and Marnus Labuschagne (7.0). But those are all petty short and at a much bigger price, you can go with Australian champion spinner Nathan Lyon.

True that the Gabba isn’t traditionally one for the spinners but they’ve played quite a few games in the Big Bash there this year so the wicket might be worn and could help the spinners. Lyon is a player who’s always in the game and if they get to bat first, he could take a load of wickets in the fourth innings.

Our Hot Bet: Why is this a good bet?

Indian bowlers are dropping like flies. First it was Yadav and Shami, then Jadeja and now it’s Bumrah who might miss out.

The result is that India could go into battle with the inexperienced trio of Siraj, Saini and Natarajan and then Kuldeep Yadav (yet to play this Test series) and Ashwin.

It means Ashwin may not have much to beat. He’s been excellent so far and his 12 wickets are more than any other Indian bowler and also the second most of any bowler in the Series, behind only Pat Cummins, who has 15.

Given the inexperience in their pace attack and how well Ashwin has bowled and he may get through a load of overs. Then it’s just a case of his class kicking in.

Where to bet on Australia v India Test series

When it comes to online betting, there are lots of betting sites out there but we only work with the very best.

The ones that are most trusted, offer the best odds, a top Live Betting product, lots of payment methods and all the other important things that we look for in the best betting companies and which we mention in our reviews.

Australia’s recent form

The Baggy Green Caps have played 14 Tests in the last two years, a number which includes two of those Tests from the last time India toured here.

They won nine of them, which included two wins in the 2019 Ashes over in England and two in a 2-1 Series win over New Zealand at home.

The three Tests they lost were to India in Melbourne and two in England as part of that Ashes series.

The two draws again came against India at Sydney and England at Lord’s. But that’s still a very respectable 64.8% win rate over the past two years, though it must be mentioned that they had the benefit of playing most of those games at home.

We’ve already discussed some of their injury problems, but in a nutshell: they’re struggling in the opener’s spots with David Warner out injured and the man who was meant to replace him- Will Pucovski- suffering concussion in a practice match- and being ruled out. It will be interesting to see who they do open with.

So the opening partnership with the at is a cause for concern but a middle-order of Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne and Matthew Wade, should provide a good safety blanket. Then of course there’s their formidable bowling attack where Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc are at times unpayable on Australian wickets and Nathan Lyon offers a real threat as the spinner.

India’s recent form

It’s been a good last two years for India in the Test arena. They’ve played 11 times and won eight of those Tests, a 72% win rate, which is superb. That included clean sweeps in the Series against the West Indies, South Africa and Bangladesh.

Those figures were looking even better until they toured New Zealand in February 2020. They lost both Tests convincingly, by 10 wickets and 7 wickets respectively, though the Kiwis are always extremely hard to beat in their own conditions.

The Indian Test team lead by Kohli. They are likely to win the First Test according to our India Tour of Australia First Test Betting Tips & Predictions

The one draw they had over the last two years was here in Australia, in Sydney to be precise.

India have a few injury concerns of their own. There’s no Rohit Sharma for the first two Tests and as we know, Kohli will only be playing the first game before flying back to India for the birth of his first child.

India have actually already announced the starting XI for the First Test and it’s as follows:

Shaw, Agarwal, Pujara, Kohli, Rahane, Vihari, Saha, Ashwin, Yadav, Shami, Bumrah.

It means they made the somewhat curious decision to pick Shaw ahead of KL Rahul and that W. Saha was preferred to Rishabh Pant in the wicket-keeper position. It also means there’s no room for the enigmatic Ravi Jadeja.

Australia v India Test Series cricket analysis

Australia and India have played 98 Tests against each other with Australia winning 42, India winning 28 and with 27 draws in there as well. Interestingly, there’s also been a tie, which of course is incredibly rare in Test cricket.

Just looking at matches played in Australia, there have been 48 Tests with Australia winning 28 of them (60%), India victorious in seven (15%) and 12 draws (25%).

Interestingly, India have toured Australia just once in the last five years, which was two years ago. Virat Kohli’s men emerged victorious, taking the Series 2-1. It’s very much a rarity that Australia lose a Test series at home, so that goes down as one of Kohli’s great cricketing achievements.

India’s best chance is here in Adelaide

As we’ve said already, this is India’s best chance of winning a Test or to put it another way, their best chance of not losing one. So that’s why we’re going with them on the Double Chance market.

But we also really like Starc to be the Aussies’ top bowler in the first innings and Travis Head to top score for the hosts at a big price.

Make sure you follow us on our tips by placing bets on these same outcomes in what should be a great Test in what is one of the most mouth-watering Series in cricket.

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