After the very best and also very free T20 World Cup betting tips for the New Zealand vs Australia big final? Of course, you are. Cricket matches don’t come any bigger than this! There’s a World Cup up for grabs and both sides will be desperate to get their hands on it.
Here you’ll find a summary of how both teams did in their previous match, the likely line-ups for both sides, a pitch report and some good stats.
Today’s New Zealand vs Australia betting odds have Australia as favourites. But I’m going to explain to you why in light of the toss being so crucial, it’s New Zealand who are the bet because…they’re outsiders and hence, the far bigger price.
This is possibly the best cricket prediction in the world on the toss and the match-winner. I’ve also picked New Zealand’s in-form man with the bat to come good once again when it matters most.
New Zealand showed the cricketing world what they’re all about with a fine win over tournament favourites England.
There were good performances with the ball from the likes of Tim Southee, Jimmy Neesham and Adam Milne, restricting England to a par score.
In the chase, Daryl Mitchell, Devon Conway and Neesham were the ones playing the decisive knocks.
Neesham was only there for 11 balls but his 27 was absolutely crucial at a time when the Black Caps looked like they were struggling.
It was then left to Mitchell (72 off 47) to finish the job in style.
But if Conway played some smart cricket during his 46 off 38, what followed when he got out wasn’t so smart. He punched his bat in frustration at getting out, broke his hand and has been ruled out of the final.
Tim Seifert will come in for him and probably play as wicket-keeper as well but New Zealand could really have done without all this.
Conway has been pretty good all tournament and will be disappointed as anyone to miss out.
Yes, it’s extremely unlucky to an extent, but it was also all very avoidable.
This is New Zealand’s first-ever T20 World Cup final.
After the heartbreak of the 2019 ODI World Cup final, they really won’t want to go through all of that again by ending up on the losing side.
Matthew Wade had barely had a bat all tournament with the Australia top-order doing most of the heavy lifting but he came good when it mattered.
He started slowly but came up with the big hits when it mattered, hitting 41 off 17. He ended up as man of the match and that was probably deserved because not many players in the world could have finished the game off like he did.
Before those big hits, David Warner played an important knock of 49 off 30 and the man who was there at the end with him, Marcus Stoinis, got 40 off 31.
Pat Cummins and Adam Zampa were the pick of the bowlers, Zampa’s four overs extremely important in that they didn’t go for many runs, while he also dismissed key man Babar Azam, who was going along nicely.
This is Australia’s second T20 final. Back in 2010 they were easily beaten by England, so they’ll want to make sure there are no slip-ups this time round.
Both teams will be thinking 170 when they bat first up in Dubai, while 180 will be seen as a very good score. Anything less than 170 and they’ll have it all to do.
We’ve been saying this all tournament and we’ll say it one last time: the toss will be the single most important moment of the match.
Win it, bat second and that’s more than half the job done.
I explained last time ahead of Australia vs Pakistan why chasing is such an advantage. In summary: teams prefer to have a target, batsmen know which areas and bowlers to target in tricky chases and the ball gets wet because of the dew, making it harder to control.
So Aaron Finch and Kane Williamson will both be desperate to win the toss and chase.
New Zealand vs Australia Head-to-Head
In 14 games between the two, Australia have won nine of them. Interestingly, the first-ever T20I was between these two teams back in 2005, Australia winning it comfortably.
New Zealand vs Australia Toss Prediction
Let’s talk New Zealand vs Australia toss winner statistics. Australia are 8-6 ahead, which is one of the reasons why they have the positive record they do in terms of wins against Australia.
The Aussies have also won four of the last five tosses. Another toss win here and as we said already, they’ll be in pole position to win their first-ever T20 World Cup. The stats suggest the toss may go their way.
For those who want to play on Live Betting rather than bet before the match, the advice is dead simple: back the team chasing.
We’ve explained above and throughout the whole tournament before that, why it’s so important to chase in the UAE.
But given the job here is to recommend a bet before the toss, there’s only one way to go: New Zealand.
Why? Because if there’s not much to choose between them in terms of their record at World Cups and more importantly, the quality of the players, then it obviously makes sense to go with the team who is available at the bigger odds.
Look at it this way: if we assume for argument’s sake that you have about a 75% chance of winning the game if you bat second, would you rather back a team at 2.37 or one at 1.61 knowing that’s the case? Exactly.
Or to look at it another way: if the toss against you, would you rather bet on a team at 1.61 or 2.37? Same answer.
The absence of Conway is a bit of a worry for New Zealand but it would have been worse if they’d lost say Mitchell, Williamson, Boult, or Sodhi.
One thing is for sure: as the ‘nice guys’ of international cricket, everyone who isn’t Australian will be cheering on the Black Caps. And for the reason above, so will we.
Stating the obvious but if you took our advice in backing New Zealand at 5.0 before the semi, it doesn’t make any sense to back them again at shorter odds.
And here’s our Betway review where we tell you all you need to know about one of India’s top betting sites.