T20 World Cup Top Batsman Predictions: Rizwan and Rahul can rule the roost

T20 World Cup Top Batsman Predictions and betting tips 2021

One of the most popular and interesting World Cup betting tips that we give is for the top batsman market. A good starting place when playing this market is our T20 top batsman guide, though admittedly that’s more focussed on finding the top batsman in individual matches rather than whole tournaments. But most of the principles are the same.

Let’s look into my choices for T20 World Cup top batsman predictions below, including top odds for them!

Contents

Who has won Top Batsman in the T20 World Cup?

Profile of a T20 World Cup top batsman winner

Avoid Kohli for Top Batsman!

T20 World Cup Top Batsman Prediction: KL Rahul to Rule Again?

T20 World Cup Top Batsman Prediction: Mohammad Rizwan

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Who has won Top Batsman in the T20 World Cup?

Year	Player
2007	Matthew Hayden
2009	Tillakaratne Dilshan
2012	Shane Watson
2014	Virat Kohli
2016	Tamim Iqbal/Virat Kohli

A couple of explanations. I didn’t list the number of runs scored because to an extent they’re irrelevant. Firstly because it doesn’t matter how many you get, only that you get more than the field.

And secondly, the tournament’s format has varied over the years and so have the number of games. So by comparing total runs from 2007 to 2016, you’re not comparing like for like – which makes it rather difficult if you’re looking for proper statistics for online cricket betting in India.

In the 2016 edition, Bangladesh’s Tamim Iqbal was the winner but only because he played more games by virtue of the Tigers playing a preliminary round.

If you were to just look at the tournament proper, the winner was Virat Kohli.

Profile of a T20 World Cup top batsman winner

Four of the five different winners were opening batsmen. Only Kohli isn’t, given he bats at three.
Excluding Iqbal, the other four played for a team who at least reached the semi-final. Curiously, none of the winners came from the team who actually won it.
Kohli was the youngest winner at 26; all the rest were older. That suggests experience goes a long way.

So we’re looking at openers who are 26 or older and play for sides expected to at least make the semis.

Avoid Kohli for Top Batsman!

We’ll come onto the players we like in a second. But here’s one we don’t like as 11.0 joint-favourite: Kohli. Why is he that price? Simple.

For starters, he won the last two editions despite batting at three rather than opening. Secondly, as the world’s most famous batsman, he’s the one that customers will most want to bet on.

So betting sites are protecting themselves by offering shorter odds than what he should be. If he did go on to win, it’s much better that they pay out to customers at 11.0 than 15.0, right?

But we like to think we know better! We don’t like that Kohli bats at three and we don’t like the form he’s in right now. Or isn’t, as the case may be. He had a poor IPL with RCB and was particularly low on runs in the second half of the tournament.

Theres’ also an argument to say he’s not the same player he was back in 2014 and 2016 full stop.

T20 World Cup Top Batsman Prediction: KL Rahul to Rule Again?

BEST ODDS: 11.0 with Betway

If I don’t like joint-favourite Kohl, then I certainly like the man sharing favouritism with him: KL Rahul. He plays as an opener, he’s 29 years old and he plays for the tournament favourites, India. So those are the first three boxes ticked.

Rahul was one of our three tips for top batsman ahead of the IPL and he didn’t disappoint.

IPL superstar

He only played 13 games (missing one of the Group games through illness) because Punjab Kings didn’t make the Playoffs.

So essentially, he played four games fewer than those who featured in every game for CSK or Delhi and five games fewer than anyone at KKR.

He scored six fifties in 13 games, including a top score of 98 not out against CSK.

His average was 62, he had a very healthy strike rate of 138 and no-one hit more sixes than his 30.

And it’s not like this was a flash in the pan. Because last year he was also the IPL’s top runscorer and again, despite Punjab not making the playoffs and him playing less matches in that one, too.

You’d be inclined to think that if he played as many games as some of the others, he would have won by a considerable distance.

What’s the relevance of the IPL?

Two things. The first is that with the vast majority of the world’s best players turning out in the IPL, you can compare them against each other.

If Rahul had wonderful tournaments over the past two years and the likes of David Warner or Quinton de Kock didn’t, who would you trust the most when up against the world’s best bowlers who will also feature at the World Cup? Exactly.

The other important factor was the venue. The whole of the 2020 IPL was played in the UAE, as was the second half of the 2021 edition.

Where is the World Cup being played? The UAE. So if he can score a load of runs there in the IPL, he should be able to do the same for India.

For good measure, his T20I stats are outstanding. 49 games, average of 39. Brilliant strike rate of 142, including two centuries and 12 fifties. Just brilliant.

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T20 World Cup Top Batsman Prediction: Mohammad Rizwan

BEST ODDS: 23.0 with Betway

Ok, so you’re probably wondering why not go with Babar Azam here instead? We all know that Pakistan skipper Azam is one of the world’s finest T20 batsmen. Apart from anything else, we know that because he’s ranked Number 2 in the ICC rankings.

He’s a real run accumulator rather than destroyer but that’s his style and he’s not going to change it now. Azam is 12.0 third favourite but rather like Kohli, those odds are partly short because he’s so famous and there will always be betting interest in him.

But at almost twice the odds you can back his likely opening partner, Mohammad Rizwan.

Let’s just compare the two for a second:

T20I matches played: Rizwan (61) / Azam (43)
T20I batting average: Rizwan (48.84) / Azam (46.89)
T20 strike rate: Rizwan (129) / Azam (130)
Matches played per fifty scored: Rizwan (5.37) Azam (3.05)

Ok, so Azam trumps Rizwan for ICC ranking (Rizwan still very high at Number 7) and games needed per fifty scored.

But Rizwan has a slightly better average and there’s nothing to choose between them in terms of strike rate. So absolutely no reason why Rizwan should be almost twice the odds.

Other considerations

Does he tick the other sacred boxes? Well, he’s an opener and he’s 29 years old so yes, in that regard he does. It’s also worth noting that despite not playing in the IPL (Pakistani players aren’t allowed to), he has plenty of UAE experience.

That’s because the UAE has been Pakistan’s international home for years now. As a senior player with just over 100 appearances for Pakistan across the three formats, he’s no stranger to those conditions.

As for the last point about playing for a side who at least needs to make the semis, maybe that’s not so clean cut. Pakistan are after all the sixth favourites at odds of 8.0 to win it. But another way of looking at it is that they’re 4.75 to win their Group, behind India ( 2.0) and New Zealand (4.0).

So it’s almost a coin toss between them and New Zealand according to the odds for a runner-up spot. But then again, there’s an argument to say India are far too short in the betting in all regards and that this should almost be a three-horse race where there isn’t much to choose between them.

A run to the semis or better would give us a good really run for our money with Rizwan.

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